NFL playoff seeding scenarios feature 192 different possibilities today

Are you ready?

Playoffs? You talking about playoffs?!?!?!?!

This is a very interesting final week of the regular season in the NFL as the only team that has secured a set playoff spot are the Kansas City Chiefs at #5. The rest of the NFL playoff seeding has not been determined yet. But they will after today’s action.

To make some sense out of all this, here are the current playoff scenarios.

2013 NFL PLAYOFF SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17

AFC

CLINCHED: Denver — AFC West and first-round bye

New England — AFC East

Cincinnati — AFC North

Indianapolis — AFC South

Kansas City — playoff spot

DENVER BRONCOS (at OAK)

Denver clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) DEN win or tie OR

2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (vs. BUF)

New England clinches a first-round bye with:

1) NE win or tie OR

2) CIN loss or tie + IND loss or tie

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) NE win + DEN loss

CINCINNATI BENGALS (vs. BAL)

Cincinnati clinches a first-round bye with:

1) CIN win + NE loss

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (vs. JAX)

Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye with:

1) IND win + NE loss + CIN loss or tie

MIAMI DOLPHINS (vs. NYJ)

Miami clinches a playoff spot with:

1) MIA win + BAL loss or tie OR

2) MIA win + SD win OR

3) MIA tie + BAL loss + SD loss or tie OR

4) MIA tie + BAL tie + SD tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS (at CIN)

Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:

1) BAL win + SD loss or tie OR

2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie OR

3) BAL tie + MIA loss + SD loss or tie OR

4) BAL tie + MIA tie + SD loss OR

5) MIA loss + SD loss + PIT loss or tie

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (vs. KC)

San Diego clinches a playoff spot with:

1) SD win + MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2) SD tie + MIA loss + BAL loss

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (vs. CLE)

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:

1) PIT win + MIA loss + BAL loss + SD loss

NFC

CLINCHED: Seattle — playoff spot

Carolina — playoff spot

San Francisco — playoff spot


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (vs. STL)

Seattle clinches NFC West division and home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) SEA win or tie OR

2) SF loss or tie

CAROLINA PANTHERS (at ATL)

Carolina clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye with:

1) CAR win or tie OR

2) NO loss or tie

Carolina clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) CAR win + SEA loss + SF win

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (at DAL)

Philadelphia clinches NFC East division with:

1) PHI win or tie

CHICAGO BEARS (vs. GB)

Chicago clinches NFC North division with:

1) CHI win or tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (at ARI)

San Francisco clinches NFC West division and a first-round bye with:

1) SF win + SEA loss

San Francisco clinches NFC West division and home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) SF win + SEA loss + CAR loss or tie

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (vs. TB)

New Orleans clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye with:

1) NO win + CAR loss

New Orleans clinches a playoff spot with:

1) NO win OR

2) NO tie + ARI tie OR

3) ARI loss

ARIZONA CARDINALS (vs. SF)

Arizona clinches a playoff spot with:

1) ARI win + NO loss or tie OR

2) ARI tie + NO loss

DALLAS COWBOYS (vs. PHI)

Dallas clinches NFC East division with:

1) DAL win

GREEN BAY PACKERS (at CHI)

Green Bay clinches NFC North division with:

1) GB win

===

Want more juice? Here are some facts from the NFL Network research team.

AFC

– 7 of the 8 games in the AFC have an impact on the playoff picture
– There are 128 possible outcomes of those 7 games
– The percentages below are the chances that a given team end up a particular seed, all games being determined by a coin flip

– The Patriots have a 62.5% chance of ending up with a first round bye
– It would be their 4th consecutive season with a first round bye, tying the Cowboys (1992-1995) and 49ers (1992-1995) for most since 1990
– Under Belichick, the Patriots have had a first-round bye 7 times – reaching the Super Bowl 5 of those seasons. They have never reached the Super Bowl in a season in which they did not have a first round bye under Belichick.

– If the Bengals end up with the 3-seed, their likely opponent would be the Ravens – which would be a Week 17 rematch in the Wild Card round for the 2nd straight season. Last year, the Vikings and Packers met in Week 17 and again in the playoffs.
– Vikings won in Week 17 (37-34). Packers won in playoffs (24-10).
– In NFL History, the team that won the regular season finale also won the postseason game 8 of 18 times.

1 seed
Broncos    96/128    75%
Patriots    32/128    25%

2 seed
Patriots    48/128    37.5%
Broncos    32/128    25%
Bengals    32/128    25%
Colts         16/128    12.5%

3 seed
Bengals 64/128 50%
Patriots 32/128 25%
Colts 32/128 25%

4 seed
Colts         80/128    62.5%
Bengals    32/128    25%
Patriots   16/128    12.5%

5 seed
Chiefs    128/128    100%

6 seed
Ravens       56/128    43.75%
Dolphins    48/128    37.5%
Chargers    16/128    12.5%
Steelers       8/128     6.25%

NFC

– 6 of the 8 games in the NFC have an impact on the playoff picture
– There are 64 possible outcomes of those 6 games
– The percentages below are the chances that a given team end up a particular seed, all games being determined by a coin flip

– The Seahawks have made the playoffs 12 times in franchise history, but have played on Wild Card weekend 10 of those times. The only season in which they finished with the 1-seed was 2005 – making it all the way to Super Bowl XL.
– Lost 21-10 vs Steelers

– The Saints clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Panthers loss. Perhaps no team needs the bye and ensuing home game more than the Saints, who are 0-5 on the road in postseason history.

– There is a 25% chance that the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals could all make the playoffs together – giving the NFC West 3 teams in the playoffs. The last time the NFC had three teams from the same division all make the playoffs was 2007 (NFC East – Cowboys, Giants, Redskins).
– This will be the 2nd straight year in which a 10+ win team in the NFC misses the playoffs (Bears, 10-6 in 2012)
– There is not a scenario in which the Saints (10 wins) and Cardinals (10 wins) make the playoffs together this season

1 seed
Seahawks      48/64      75%
Panthers          8/64      12.5%
49ers                8/64      12.5%

2 seed
Panthers    40/64    62.5%
Saints          16/64    25%
49ers           8/64    12.5%

3 seed
Eagles          32/64    50%
Cowboys    16/64    25%
Bears           16/64    25%

4 seed
Packers     32/64     50%
Cowboys   16/64     25%
Bears          16/64     25%

5 seed
49ers             32/64    50%
Seahawks    16/64     25%
Saints              8/64    12.5%
Panthers        8/64    12.5%

6 seed
Saints             24/64    37.5%
49ers             16/64      25%
Cardinals      16/64     25%
Panthers        8/64      12.5%

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